MLB playoff odds: Five teams that helped playoff odds; and five teams that injured them

The 2022 MLB season is only three weeks old and so much has happened already. Future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera scored his historic 3,000th hit! We have also seen Clayton Kershaw is removed from a perfect game offer, Freddie Freeman hit a home run against the Bravesand Reds chairman Phil Castellini insults his paying customers. The last few weeks have been hectic.

MLB and MLBPA have agreed to an expanded 12-team postseason format as part of the new collective bargaining agreement. The unique wild card game is no more, and instead we get a new round with two best-of-three sets of wild cards per league. The season doesn’t end today (thankfully), but here’s what the 12-team playoff group would look like if it did:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
GOODBYE:
Yankees and angels
WC1: Twins vs. sailors
WC2: blue jays vs. Rays

NATIONAL LEAGUE
GOODBYE:
Dishes and giants
WC1: Brewers vs. Cardinals
WC2: Dodgers vs. padres

Three weeks is a drop in the bucket in baseball (only 287 of 2,430 regular season games have been played, or 11.8%), although the old adage rings true: you can’t win a division in April, but you can certainly lose one. . That said, getting into the playoffs as a wild card team is a bit easier now because there’s one more spot per league.

Even with 88.2% of the schedule still to play, the playoff outlook has changed a lot early on. Right here, according to Sportslineare the teams that have helped (and hurt) their postseason chances the most this year.

The Biggest Odds Increases in the Playoffs

Los Angeles Angels

14.4%

59.4%

+45.0%

San Francisco Giants

63.6%

86.1%

+22.5%

New York food

64.0%

80.0%

+16.0%

San Diego Padres

66.6%

82.1%

+15.5%

New York Yankees

61.2%

76.1%

+14.9%

The Mariners are just behind the Yankees at plus-14.1% and the Athletics are right behind them at plus-13.8. Oakland started the season better than I think anyone expected, but it’s hard to imagine that lasting given the short roster of crews they use nightly. Kudos to the A players for playing hard and playing to win. The property is definitely not. Here’s where the five teams with the most improved playoff odds currently stand.

Angels: Mike Trout dominates the sport again, Brandon Marsh and Neighborhood Taylor burst and the rotation was solid at the start. Shohei Ohtani hasn’t really started yet (especially on the plate), although it will happen soon enough. Anaheim will have a chance to really pick up some wins next month when they play the A’s, Nationalsand Rangers 15 times in 18 games. The Angels have played three postseason games in Trout’s 10 full seasons. If that doesn’t change this year, I don’t know when it will.

Giants: Projection systems have problems with teams like the Giants (and Rays) because their thing is to maximize the very specific skills of players that the projections consider just OK overall. Austin Slater is a good example. His career .251/.337/.401 batting line is good, but he’s hit .266/.352/.496 against lefties the past two years, and San Francisco uses it almost exclusively against lefties. The Giants are better — much better — than playoff odds would lead you to believe. That said, numbers are numbers, and they say the Giants have improved their playoff odds more than any team other than the Angels.

Food: The Mets have the best record in baseball and, ahead of Thursday’s action, they joined the Dodgers and Giants as the only teams to place in the top six in two runs scored per game and fewest runs allowed. per game. The rotation was incredible even without Jacob of Grom and the lineup was productive 1-9 (well, maybe not nine, receiver James McCann started very slowly). The Mets have played half of their games against the Nationals and Diamondbacks, goes 7-3 against them. You can only play the schedule given to you, but great teams beat bad teams, and the Mets have done that so far. Just a great start to the season overall.

Fathers: Dropping two of three at home to the Dodgers and Giants is a bummer — at some point San Diego has to beat those two powerhouses to be taken seriously as a World Series contender — but they’re 11-3 against all the world, and they did it without Fernando Tatis Jr. mackenzie gore did very well in his three starts, Manny Machado will compete for the NL MVP award again, Taylor Rogers was automatic in the ninth inning, and Eric Hosmer and Jurickson Profar were pleasant surprises. Starting Friday, the Padres will play their next 12 games against the pirate, Guardians, marlinsand Cubs.

Yankees: The throwing has been fantastic all year and the offense is starting to wake up thanks to Judge Aaron, Anthony Rizoand an upsurge DJ LeMahieu. They are coming off a six-game homestand and have won eight of their last nine games overall. On paper, the Yankees have a favorable schedule for the next few weeks — they won’t play back-to-back series against 2021 postseason teams until mid-June — though they will need Josh Donaldson and Joey Gallo contribute regularly at a given time. For now, they’re doing enough to pace the AL East.

Most important playoff odds drop

As is usually the case at the start of the season, the biggest declines in playoff odds belong to teams that entered the season with strong odds and started slower than they would have liked. Now their playoff odds are a bit lower, but they’re still good with a lot of season to go. Here are the five teams that have their chances of taking the biggest hits this season.

Brave: The Braves are a good reminder that postseason odds are constantly changing and can go up as quickly as they go down. When we did that three-week post-season odds update last year, Atlanta was among the biggest downfalls, and of course they won the World Series. Did they start this season slowly? Yes. Do they still have five months to fix things with a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. back in the lineup? Yes too. For now, their slow start combined with the Mets’ hot start has reduced their playoff chances.

Astros: With three straight wins and four in their last five games, the tide could turn in Houston. They did, however, lose eight times in 11 games earlier this month, and that will hurt your playoff chances a bit. The Astros still have a few too many offensive underachievers (Yuli Gurriel and Kyle Tucker, notably) and the pitching staff have been prone to twisted numbers (seven games with more than six runs allowed is the fourth highest in baseball). Houston’s next six games will be against the Blue Jays and Mariners. Good opportunity for the Astros to remind the world that they are World Series contenders.

White Sox: Defending champions AL Central have recently lost eight straight games and they have lost nine of their last 10 games overall. It wasn’t pretty either. The offense has really struggled lately (15 points scored during the eight-game losing streak) and some of those recent losses have been heartbreaking. Witness it:

The White Sox are without several key players due to injury (Garrett Hook, Eloy Jiménez, Lance Lynn, Yoan Moncada) and they also have several underperforming regulars, including Jose Abreu. Their recent 1-9 streak combined with the Twins’ seven-game winning streak has really put a damper on Chicago’s playoff odds. It’s not time to panic yet, but a little worry is warranted. 17 of their next 27 games are against the Angels, Red Sox and Yankees. It doesn’t get any easier.

Red Sox: It’s shocking to see a Boston team near the bottom of the league in points scored per game. The offense suffered a lot at the start of the season (no more than two points scored seven times in their last 10 games) and the roster is very heavy. They rely on Xander Bogaerts, Raphael Deversand JD Martinez. If these three are calm, groceries are hard to come by. The fact that the bullpen is questionable doesn’t help matters. Red flags abound, though playoff odds haven’t caught on also another big success. In the deep AL East, the Red Sox can’t afford to continue their current pace much longer.

Tigers: Detroit was a deep sleeper for an expanded playoff spot heading into the season. They’re buffed for sure, but some key injuries (Casey Mize and Matt Manning) combined with young players taking their pieces (namely Spencer Torkelson) make it clear that the Tigers are still a year away from making some noise. They’ve lost five in a row and won just two straight this season (and never more than two straight wins), squeezing their already slim playoff chances.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.